Estimated harvest 2017

Santos, January 25th 2017

 

Dear,

After intense data collection and analysis we feel secure in releasing our final revision for the crop 16/17 and first estimate of the crop 17/18.

Considering that most of the Brazilian states are facing a negative bi-annual year, we expect a drop of approximately 10% comparing to last year’s volume. This evidenced by the general pruning of crops in some regions.

The scenario for Arabica coffees is more comfortable than Conilon. However it doesn’t reflect in an evolution of business in physical market. After two positive Arabica crops, producers find themselves in a very comfortable situation, choosing the right moment to sell their lots. The market remains steady with producers always aiming for the much dreamed level of R$ 500.00 per bags, even up.

A big narrowing of prices noted for lower qualities, with current prices being practically equivalent. When searching at physical market it’s possible to observe Rio, Riado Rio and Harsh coffees being negotiated at very competitive prices. This causes tighter selling diffs, resulting in less competitive low grades. An important point to observe in this matter is the expressive demand for this type of coffee in the Brazilian internal market. This is caused by the scarce offer of Conilon, and when available, expensive prices.

The strong demand by the local industry solidifies the differentials for the lower grade qualities resulting in a negotiation floor with diffs rapidly increasing. This scenario could be repeated in the 17/18 crop, resulting in more vulnerable differentials to drops of the NY and USD market.

The Espirito Santo region is still facing issues related to the two consecutive years of hydric stress, which led to the suspension of the permission to use irrigation. Also, we are still going through uncertainties related to the rain season in Espirito Santo, that received only 10% of the historical volume predicted for Jannuary. There is, however, a better rain forecast for the month of February. And definitely it can change the expected volumes for the 17/18 Conilon crop.

A very richful 2017!

Best,

Comexim

Sergio – Mauricio – Renata.

Brazilian Crop
2016-2017 2017-2018
Minas Gerais 31.300.000 27.250.000
Cerrado 7.500.000 5.500.000
South area 16.500.000 13.250.000
Z.da Mata area and North 7.300.000 8.500.000
Espírito Santo 9.500.000 9.000.000
Arábica 4.000.000 3.000.000
Conillon 5.500.000 6.000.000
São Paulo 6.700.000 5.000.000
Paraná 1.350.000 1.450.000
Bahia 2.500.000 3.300.000
Arábica 1.500.000 1.600.000
Conillon 1.000.000 1.700.000
Rondônia 1.600.000 1.900.000
Arábica 0 0
Conillon 1.600.000 1.900.000
Others 1.600.000 1.500.000
Arábica 1.000.000 800.000
Conillon 600.000 700.000
TOTAL     54.550.000   49.400.000
Arábica 45.550.000 Arábica 38.800.000
Conillon 9.000.000 Conillon 10.600.000
 

 

Other states : MT, MS, PE, RJ, GO, CE, TO and PA

The Zona da Mata area includes 300.000 scs of conillon

 

 Outs Entries  Total
1) Stocks 01/07/2016                  (688.384)
2) Crop 16/17                    54.550.000
3) Green coffee export from 07/2016 to 12/2016                       15.707.718
4) Solubel coffee export from 07/2016 to 12/2016                         2.010.051
5) Internal Consumption from 07/2016 to 12/2016                       10.250.000
Availability 31/12/2016              25.893.847
6) Green Coffee Export Prediction from 01/2017 to 06/2017                       14.000.000
7) Solubel Coffee Export Prediction from 01/2017 to 06/2017                         1.700.000
6) Internal Consumption Prediction from 01/2017 to 06/2017                       10.500.000
Availability 30/06/2017                  (306.153)
 

 

Sources :
2016 Export numbers from Cecafé
2016 Internal consumption  numbers from ABIC
2017 Export Prediction numbers from Comexim
2017 Internal Consumption Prediction  numbers from ABIC

 

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