COMEXIM`s Brazilian coffee carry-over expectation as per July 1st, 2015:

Santos, 17th of July 2015.

Dear ladies and gentlemen

COMEXIM`s Brazilian coffee carry-over expectation as per July 1st, 2015:

Private Stocks Funcafe/Conab
1) Carry over 01/01/2015*(Total)) 31,103,883 1,653,100**
Disappearance Jan/June 2015 : 2) Funcafe auction  Jan

June 2015 **                                           

3) Brazilian green coffeeExports Jan/June 15 ***  (15,924,542)
4) Brazilian soluble ****coffee exports 01/06-15 (1,720,255)
5) Braz. estimated  localconsumption 01/06-2015

as per ABIC figures

6 ) Carry over 01.07.2015 3,459,086 1,602,000**
7)  Total availability including Government stocks as per 01 July 2015  5,061,086bags of 60 kgs

E& O incl.


*    As per Comexim carry over dated 20/01/15 and our crop revision dated 01/04/15 from 48,850 million to 49,35 million. (32,75 mln of arabica´s and  16,6 million of Conillon.)

** As per latest Cecafe statistics. (Where Conab declares as public stocks, 1,602,000.)

*** Source for export figures – Cecafe. (13,6 mln of Arabica and 2,3 million of Conillon)  

**** As per Cecafe ABICS EXPORT figures.

Our crop figures for this ending crop of 14/15 was of 49,350 million bags, being 32,75 of Arabica’s and 16,6 million bags of Conillon is the base for the 5 million bags of carry over as per 01st of July.

Adding the above crop starting 01st of July 2014  of 49,35 mln to our carry over estimate same date of 12,280 million bags between Funcafe and private hands, we started this later coffee year (14/15) at 61,130 million bags in Brazil.  With the total deductions between 01st of July 2014 until same date of 2015 of approximately 20,15 million bags of internal consumption as well as 36,4 million bags of total exports, we should add up to the approx. 5,08 million of the 01st of July 15. Needless, to say that this carry over number is small, but will be added to the 15/16 crop which we originally guess estimated 48,60 million bags, being 34,95 mln of Arabica’s and 13,65 million bags of Conillon. We will revaluate this number soon, once the crop starts to be more offered and we have a more concrete idea..

Last week was a very rainy week, which may be part of the result for feeling the new crop is much delayed and very little offering from producer’s part is coming to us. This week we have very sunny / dry forecast for the São Paulo and Minas Gerais states until early next week, while in Parana it will rain heavily the next few days.

No frost expectation is foreseen for the coming weeks.

And thus ends the first semester, promising strong emotions for the second part of this year…

Will keep you posted any further news,

Kind regards

John Wolthers.

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