Dear ladies and gentlemen
Santos, 20th of January 2015.
Brazilian coffee Carry-over expectancy as per January 1st, 2015 in 60 kg bags :
|1) Carry over 01/07/2014*||10,626,566||1,653,100|
|2) Crop 14/15 ****||48,850,000|
|Disapearance July/Dec 2014: 3) Funcafe auction JulyDec 2014**||Nihil|
|4) Brazilian green coffee exports July/Dec 14 **||(16,995,915)|
|5) Brazilian soluble coffee exports July/Dec 14 **||(1,726,768)|
|6) Braz. estimated local consumption July/Dec 14***||(10,150,000)|
|7 ) Carry over 01/01/2014||30,603,883||1,653,100**|
|8) Total availability including Government stocks as per 01 January 2015||32,256,983|
* As per Comexim carryover of 02/04/14.
** As per Cecafe statistics.
*** As per Abics figures.
**** As per our revised crop expectation dated 15/07/2014 when we estimated 48,850,000 bags being 16,1 mln of Conillon and 32,750 of Arabica.
The total Brazilian export volume for 2014 was impressive. A real power house productivity reaching a total of 36, 3 million bags between the green and soluble exports. The total revenue reached USD 6, 5 billion or USD 181, 00 per bag. The recent record was in 2011 when the price per bag reached USD 259, 00. The 2014 performance will most probably not be seen this year.
If we project the internal and external disappearance between January and June of this year, we may end the first semester with about 4,4 million bags including the Funcafe coffee. (10,150,000 for the internal consumption, 1,7 million for the soluble and 16 million for the green coffee exports.) .
Today of the 32,2 million bags of carryover as per 01st of January, we believe that Arabica’s correspond for 22,6 million bags, 8 million of Conillon and 1,6 for the Funcafe old coffee numbers.
The present situation is of high worries and tension. Temperatures have been higher than in normal years due to a massive high pressure tropical hot air mass over our continent, blocking the cold air fronts and not leaving them to penetrate in our region.
During the months of November and December, the rains finally came back after a long time of irregular and low volumes. January has until now had very low volumes of rains, very irregular and in places that did not need the rain. São Paulo was flooded at least twice, but up in the Cantareira reservoirs the numbers fall nearly daily. On Monday there were energy cuts – blackouts – in the south west and south Brazil, leaving people stranded in the subways system and influencing in the USD rate. On the 19th the USD rate rose 1,3 % while the energy shares fell around 4 %. Today the trend reverted and the USD returned to R$ 2,63.
If Somar´s weather expectation is correct, rains should return by Wednesday the 21st and quench the needs of the reservoirs , fields and revert the feeling of ´dejá vu’.
On the radar; we will revert later with our final numbers for the coming crop once rains revert (hopefully) to normality.
Comexim Santos – John Wolthers